The Westerner for September 28, 2009
Meeting: chair, Ben Doz; music, Jerome; grace, Bob Kimmerley
Attendance/Guests: 54 including Gary Nehlnar, guest of John; Glenda Litke, Abra Gruba, Judy Smith and Helen Nolan, all guests of Lynette; Adam Kibsey and John Su of Rotary Club of Edmonton South; Elaine Rowand; Darlene Hallett; past member Mladen Ryhard, guest of Chris; Angus Watt, guest speaker; Blair Dunkley; Lori Osoba; Greg Burghardt; Terri Hunt; Keith Hunt; Stuart Neal
Welcome New Member: Mike Henry who was inducted to membership on September 21
Condolensces: Past President of Rotary Club of Edmonton West Al MacLean who was also Past District Governor for Rotary District 5360 passed away on Saturday, September 26; President Ben gave many tributes to Al's successes; funeral is to be held October 23, 10:00 pm; St. Johns Anglican Church, 11111 - 57 Aveneue N W
Hockey Pool Tickets: see Ross for tickets, $20
CleanScene Luncheon: October 20, 11:30 am McDonald Hotel; $60, see Mike for tickets; they need your attendance to help raise funds to keep this valuable charity and youth resource source active
Scouting/Guiding: Ross is the new local representative for Rotary International Scouting/Guiding Fraternity - he will be bringing messages about how this youth leadership group can help Rotary
Welcome Al Holmes: it is great to see that Al is well enough to resume attendance
50/50: Duane & Dan Graham did not match cards; $397 to next week
Finemaster: Sherry gave some exemptions but if you were not registered to participate in Read in Edmonton Week it cost you a $1
Guest Speaker: Rob Dunseith introduced Angus Watt who was talking about "Is the New Normal Really New" starting with where we have been.
PIMCO, a firm that manages funds of the equivalent dollar value to the entire Canadian mortgage industry, gives some direction in this matter. Where we were - U S economy to shrink, world economy to slow, addicted to oil growth. Now - make the world a better place, make money, enjoy life. If there is no credit growth then overall growth slows. Banks take too much risk so bankers get bonuses - we pay when the risk becomes reality. Canada has the best banking system in the world.
Financing industry was positive about future in 2008 summer. All indicators were positive for continuation of growth - growth in U S economy, low rates - then confidence in banking system fell off. It fell so fast so quickly because the industry forgot about the true knowledge/indication of risk. We needed a major adjustment of the entire economic system.
Recovery steps: 1) bailout; 2) coordinated drop in interest rates which told everyone that this was a global problem; 3) lower gasoline prices; 4) Federal Reserve - provide liquidity to rescue the banking system; 5) sustainability of U S housing prices at a level to stabilize the market - can build from there; 6) inflation by summer 2009 - but we don't have inflation yet.
Housing prices turned from dropping to stable in early 2009 - employment should start to improve in last quarter of 2009. Alberta housing - affordibility in Edmonton/Calgary is at a high price, income is high in those 2 cities. If mortgage rates go up, price of real estate has to come down so the consumer is not losing ground. 70% of world population will live in cities by 2050 - people thus earn more and spend more. We have to invent a way out of fossil fuel based economy.
More steps - 7) market is too high but market does not care, people have to deal with reality; 8) hand off to U S consumers - banks have to start lending again after this period of looking after themselves; 9) red zone - governments cause a turn over in 2010 - reduce incentives, increase fees/tax revenue as governments are out of money - reregulation of central banks.
Angus was thanked by Mike.